SacramentoHousingBubble

 
Home Inventories (Supply) in the 4 County Greater Sacramento Area

(1993 to 2005)
El Dorado Placer Sacramento Yolo Total
                   
# of
Homes		 %
Chg		 # of
Homes		 %
Chg		 # of
Homes		 %
Chg		 # of
Homes		 %
Chg		 # of
Homes		 %
Chg
4/30/1993                 11604  
4/30/1994 1395 0.00% 1682 0.00% 6739 0.00% 628 0.00% 10444 0.00%
4/30/1995 1400 0.36% 1700 1.07% 6600 -2.06% 628 0.00% 10328 -1.11%
4/30/1996 1400 0.36% 1675 -0.42% 5800 -13.93% 615 -2.07% 9490 -9.13%
4/30/1997 1350 -3.23% 1600 -4.88% 5400 -19.87% 615 -2.07% 8965 -14.16%
4/30/1998 1150 -17.56% 1200 -28.66% 4400 -34.71% 615 -2.07% 7365 -29.48%
4/30/1999 1000 -28.32% 1100 -34.60% 4000 -40.64% 200 -68.15% 6300 -39.68%
4/30/2000 650 -53.41% 800 -52.44% 2800 -58.45% 100 -84.08% 4350 -58.35%
4/30/2001 650 -53.41% 1000 -40.55% 2800 -58.45% 50 -92.04% 4500 -56.91%
4/30/2002 650 -53.41% 1025 -39.06% 2250 -66.61% 50 -92.04% 3975 -61.94%
4/30/2003 650 -53.41% 1050 -37.57% 2300 -65.87% 225 -64.17% 4225 -59.55%
4/30/2004 625 -55.20% 650 -61.36% 1700 -74.77% 200 -68.15% 3175 -69.60%
4/30/2005 594 -57.42% 1070 -36.39% 2545 -62.23% 214 -65.92% 4423 -57.65%
                     
5/31/2005                 5290 -49.35%
6/30/2005                 6246 -40.20%
7/31/2005                 7263 -30.46%
8/31/2005 989 8.44% 1,619 9.69% 5,082 18.91% 463 11.84% 8,153 15.22%
9/30/2005 1,085 18.97% 1,803 22.15% 5,815 36.06% 581 40.34% 9,284 31.20%
10/31/2005 1,225 34.32% 2,094 41.87% 6,940 62.38% 667 61.11% 10,926 54.41%
11/30/2005 1,260 38.16% 2,216 50.14% 7,450 74.31% 690 66.67% 11,616 64.16%
12/31/2005 1,110 21.71% 1,869 26.63% 6,497 52.01% 585 41.30% 10,061 42.18%
1/31/2006 1,182 29.61% 1,958 32.66% 6,959 62.82% 594 43.48% 10,693 51.12%
2/28/2006 1,236 35.53% 2,167 46.82% 7,300 70.80% 642 55.07% 11,345 60.33%
3/31/2006 1,175 28.84% 2,284 54.74% 7,426 73.75% 670 61.84% 11,555 63.30%
4/30/2006 1,329 45.72% 2,546 72.49% 8,138 90.41% 732 76.81% 12,745 80.12%
5/31/2006 1,593 74.67% 3,016 104.34% 9,328 118.25% 885 113.77% 14,822 109.47%
6/30/2006 1,705 86.95% 3,254 120.46% 10,412 143.61% 958 131.40% 16,329 130.77%
7/31/2006 1,874 105.48% 3,511 137.87% 11,352 165.61% 1,043 151.93% 17,780 151.27%
                     
Inventory Changes Beginning 8/3/2006
El Dorado Placer Sacramento Yolo Total
                     
8/3/2006 1,857 103.62% 3,520 138.48% 11,333 165.16% 1,060 156.04% 17,770 151.13%
8/4/2006 1,858 103.73% 3,521 138.55% 11,369 166.00% 1,055 154.83% 17,803 151.60%
8/5/2006 1,866 104.61% 3,540 139.84% 11,499 169.05% 1,052 154.11% 17,957 153.77%
8/6/2006 1,864 104.39% 3,545 140.18% 11,514 169.40% 1,052 154.11% 17,975 154.03%
8/7/2006 1,859 103.84% 3,532 139.30% 11,490 168.83% 1,049 153.38% 17,930 153.39%
8/8/2006 1,865 104.50% 3,536 139.57% 11,473 168.44% 1,049 153.38% 17,923 153.29%
8/9/2006 1,860 103.95% 3,529 139.09% 11,473 168.44% 1,066 157.49% 17,928 153.36%
8/10/2006 1,859 103.84% 3,536 139.57% 11,496 168.98% 1,066 157.49% 17,957 153.77%
8/11/2006 1,871 105.15% 3,535 139.50% 11,499 169.05% 1,069 158.21% 17,974 154.01%
8/12/2006 1,883 106.47% 3,574 142.14% 11,593 171.24% 1,068 157.97% 18,118 156.05%
8/13/2006 1,878 105.92% 3,580 142.55% 11,584 171.03% 1,063 156.76% 18,105 155.86%
8/14/2006 1,872 105.26% 3,571 141.94% 11,568 170.66% 1,059 155.80% 18,070 155.37%
8/16/2006 1,872 105.26% 3,528 139.02% 11,501 169.09% 1,055 154.83% 17,956 153.76%
8/17/2006 1,876 105.70% 3,531 139.23% 11,541 170.03% 1,045 152.42% 17,993 154.28%
8/19/2006 1,871 105.15% 3,526 138.89% 11,557 170.40% 1,037 150.48% 17,991 154.25%
8/21/2006 1,866 104.61% 3,535 139.50% 11,555 170.35% 1,034 149.76% 17,990 154.24%
8/23/2006 1,849 102.74% 3,517 138.28% 11,505 169.19% 1,038 150.72% 17,909 153.09%
8/25/2006 1,845 102.30% 3,498 136.99% 11,517 169.47% 1,037 150.48% 17,901 152.98%
8/26/2006 1,841 101.86% 3,495 136.79% 11,514 169.40% 1,041 151.45% 17,891 152.84%
8/27/2006 1,843 102.08% 3,487 136.25% 11,513 169.37% 1,042 151.69% 17,885 152.76%
8/30/2006 1,856 103.51% 3,487 136.25% 11,395 166.61% 1,047 152.90% 17,785 151.34%
8/31/2006 1,843 102.08% 3,488 136.31% 11,343 165.40% 1,049 153.38% 17,723 150.47%
           
El Dorado Placer Sacramento Yolo Total
           
9/1/2006 1,823 99.89% 3,457 134.21% 11,193 161.89% 1,033 149.52% 17,506 147.40%
9/2/2006 1,845 102.30% 3,483 135.98% 11,225 162.63% 1,033 149.52% 17,586 148.53%
9/5/2006 1,837 101.43% 3,463 134.62% 11,176 161.49% 1,021 146.62% 17,497 147.27%
9/6/2006 1,849 102.74% 3,451 133.81% 11,106 159.85% 1,026 147.83% 17,432 146.35%
9/7/2006 1,845 102.30% 3,442 133.20% 11,091 159.50% 1,035 150.00% 17,413 146.09%

Note:  Daily Numbers from IDXCentral.com



Population Growth Versus # of Homes Available for Sale

This next set of data is trying to show the relationship between the total number of people in a given area to the number of homes for sale in that area.  This allows us to compare number of homes for sale today to the number of homes for at some time in the past on a population adjusted basis.

 (This is only one of many factors that may be considered for comparative purposes, such as Incomes, Job Growth, Home Prices versus Rent ratios, Inflation, etc).

 
  El Dorado County Placer County Sacramento County Yolo County Total
Year Popu- lation # Homes Pop/ Home Popu- lation # Homes Pop/ Home Popu- lation # Homes Pop/ Home Popu- lation # Homes Pop/ Home Popu- lation # Homes Pop/ Home
                               
1990 125,995     172,796     1,041,219     141,210     1,481,220    
1991 130,182     179,242     1,063,417     143,825     1,516,666    
1992 134,898     187,204     1,088,351     147,211     1,557,664    
5/31/1993 138,788     194,001     1,103,845     149,032     1,585,666 11,604 137
4/30/1994 141,843 1,395 102 199,994 1,682 119 1,113,762 6,739 165 150,387 628 239 1,605,986 10,444 154
4/30/1995 143,862 1,400 103 207,158 1,700 122 1,118,579 6,600 169 152,924 628 244 1,622,523 10,328 157
4/30/1996 145,949 1,400 104 215,019 1,675 128 1,127,700 5,800 194 155,709 615 253 1,644,377 9,490 173
4/30/1997 148,373 1,350 110 222,287 1,600 139 1,141,918 5,400 211 158,310 615 257 1,670,888 8,965 186
4/30/1998 150,857 1,150 131 229,684 1,200 191 1,157,437 4,400 263 160,732 615 261 1,698,710 7,365 231
4/30/1999 153,231 1,000 153 238,292 1,100 217 1,185,124 4,000 296 163,490 200 817 1,740,137 6,300 276
4/30/2000 157,079 650 242 246,119 800 308 1,217,628 2,800 435 167,352 100 1,674 1,788,178 4,350 411
4/30/2001 161,600 650 249 254,900 1,000 255 1,247,800 2,800 446 171,800 50 3,436 1,836,100 4,500 408
4/30/2002 163,600 650 252 265,700 1,025 259 1,280,900 2,250 569 176,300 50 3,526 1,886,500 3,975 475
4/30/2003 165,900 650 255 283,500 1,050 270 1,311,700 2,300 570 181,100 225 805 1,942,200 4,225 460
4/30/2004 170,456 625 273 296,579 650 456 1,346,205 1,700 792 184,660 200 923 1,997,900 3,175 629
4/30/2005 173,511 594 292 308,431 1,070 288 1,366,937 2,545 537 187,575 214 877 2,036,454 4,423 460
5/31/2005 173,511     308,431     1,366,937     187,575     2,036,454 5,290 385
6/30/2005 173,511     308,431     1,366,937     187,575     2,036,454 6,246 326
7/31/2005 173,511     308,431     1,366,937     187,575     2,036,454 7,263 280
8/31/2005 173,511 989 175 308,431 1,619 191 1,366,937 5,082 269 187,575 463 405 2,036,454 8,153 250
9/30/2005 173,511 1,085 160 308,431 1,803 171 1,366,937 5,815 235 187,575 581 323 2,036,454 9,284 219
10/31/2005 173,511 1,225 142 308,431 2,094 147 1,366,937 6,940 197 187,575 667 281 2,036,454 10,926 186
11/30/2005 173,511 1,260 138 308,431 2,216 139 1,366,937 7,450 183 187,575 690 272 2,036,454 11,616 175
12/31/2005 173,511 1,110 156 308,431 1,869 165 1,366,937 6,497 210 187,575 585 321 2,036,454 10,061 202
1/31/2006 176,204 1,182 149 316,508 1,958 162 1,385,607 6,959 199 190,344 594 320 2,068,663 10,693 193
2/28/2006 176,204 1,236 143 316,508 2,167 146 1,385,607 7,300 190 190,344 642 296 2,068,663 11,345 182
3/31/2006 176,204 1,175 150 316,508 2,284 139 1,385,607 7,426 187 190,344 670 284 2,068,663 11,555 179
4/30/2006 176,204 1,329 133 316,508 2,546 124 1,385,607 8,138 170 190,344 732 260 2,068,663 12,745 162
5/31/2006 176,204 1,593 111 316,508 3,016 105 1,385,607 9,328 149 190,344 885 215 2,068,663 14,822 140
6/30/2006 176,204 1,705 103 316,508 3,254 97 1,385,607 10,412 133 190,344 958 199 2,068,663 16,329 127
7/31/2006 176,204 1,874 94 316,508 3,511 90 1,385,607 11,352 122 190,344 1,043 182 2,068,663 17,780 116
8/31/2006 176,204 1,843 96 316,508 3,488 91 1,385,607 11,343 122 190,344 1,049 181 2,068,663 17,723 117
Notes:
  • Population Data was pulled from the California Employment Development Department.
  • 1990 data courtesy of the US Census Bureau.
  • 1991-2005 data courtesy of the California Department of Finance.
  • 2006 estimated.
  • 6/30/2006 --- 2005 and 2006 population numbers revised according to updates on EDD's website.



Sacramento County Foreclosure Data

Beginning 8/10/2005

(Sacramento County Only)
Date Foreclosure Pre-Foreclosure Bankruptcy
8/10/2005 29 3,045 1,243
8/20/2005 28 3,128 1,286
8/25/2005 30 3,091 3,294
9/3/2005 32 3,201 4,182
9/10/2005 33 3,268 4,264
9/17/2005 36 3,313 4,300
9/24/2005 37 3,367 2,553
10/1/2005 36 3,450 1,768
10/8/2005 34 2,461 733
10/15/2005 42 3,556 1,868
10/22/2005 43 3,609 2,165
10/29/2005 46 3,722 2,961
11/5/2005 46 3,813 3,102
11/12/2005 48 3,525 3,128
11/19/2005 50 3,556 3,121
11/26/2005 52 3,485 3,093
12/3/2005 53 3,496 3,036
12/10/2005 52 3,468 3,014
12/17/2005 58 3,463 3,006
12/24/2005 58 3,484 3,001
12/31/2005 60 3,508 2,989
1/7/2006 61 3,548 2,923
1/14/2006
1/21/2006 66 3,465 2,546
1/28/2006 69 3,410 2,230
2/4/2006 77 3,448 2,256
2/11/2006 77 3,474 1,917
2/18/2006 75 3,595 1,809
2/25/2006 87 3,602 1,592
3/04/2006 91 3,643 1,302
3/11/2006 99 3,691 1,375
3/18/2006 88 3,773 1,424
3/25/2006 99 3,828 1,210
4/1/2006 98 3,858 1,030
4/8/2006 106 3,900 1,014
4/15/2006 109 3,974 998
4/22/2006 109 4,040 1,011
4/29/2006 119 4,111 1,022
5/6/2006 125 4,174 984
5/13/2006 130 4,232 1000
5/20/2006 136 4,254 1,012
5/27/2006 148 4,362 1,061
6/3/2006 154 4,410 1,105
6/10/2006 164 4,434 1,114
6/17/2006 180 4,610 1,118
6/24/2006 191 4,682 1,131
7/1/2006 203 4,685 1,143
7/8/2006 212 4,753 1,180
7/15/2006 225 4,747 1,154
7/22/2006 228 2,910 1,166
7/29/2006 239 2,927 1,162
8/5/2006 247 2,960 1,200
8/12/2006 261 2,968 1,219
8/19/2006 267 2,937 1,225
8/26/2006 281 2,948 1,228
9/2/2006 275 2,276 1,296
9/9/2006 303 2,315 1,314
Notes:
  • Data courtesy of Foreclosure.com.
  • Data is for Sacramento County only (not the 4 county region).



Job Growth in the Four County Region from 1994-2004
Things to notice:
1) Steady decline in job growth after a peak in 1999.
2) High percentage of new jobs being real estate related.
Year Total Jobs Total New Jobs New Real Estate Jobs Percent
1994 643,800 17,800 1,600 9.0%
1995 662,800 19,000 400 2.1%
1996 681,500 18,700 2,800 15.0%
1997 702,000 20,500 4,000 19.5%
1998 731,400 29,400 5,900 20.0%
1999 770,500 39,100 8,100 20.7%
2000 797,100 26,600 4,500 16.9%
2001 818,900 21,800 7,100 32.6%
2002 832,200 13,300 1,700 12.8%
2003 846,000 13,800 7,000 50.7%
2004 856,200 10,200 4,100 40.1%

Notes:

  • Job numbers were taken from a recent article in the Sacramento Bee, which was quoting numbers by the Employment Development Department in Sacramento.




Notes:
  • Inventory chart on the left depicts the inventory data in the tables above  (last updated 8/31/2006).
  • The National City chart on the right was pulled from a recent report by National City regarding overvalued and "extremely overvalued" (over 30% overvalued) cities in America.   At that point, they considered Sacramento roughly 54% overvalued, which fell into the "extremely overvalued" category.
  • This graph was developed by Economist Robert Shiller and his students. Basically it's an index of home prices dating back to the late 1800s, using data from newspapers and govt surveys (as the picture states). Graph courtesy of Robert Shiller's book "Irrational Exuberance" and the picture was pulled from a story in the NY Times.








posted by James_in_CA  # 2:46 PM 46 comments

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